On Vancouver population projections

A closer look at the the Regional Growth Strategy and population projections

Jens von Bergmann

20 minute read

Metro Vancouver’s population is growing. For planning purposes we want to understand how our population will be growing. For that we need projections. Here we need to carefully distinguish two related but distinct types of population projections. projections of population demand, and projections of population growth. Projecting demand, or even just estimating current population demand, is complex. Demand is a function of a variety of factors, most importantly jobs, and amenities, as well as home prices and rents (in relation to incomes and wealth).

How are condos used?

Comparing how condos are used across Canada.

Jens von Bergmann Nathanael Lauster Douglas Harris

11 minute read

(Cross-posted at HomeFreeSociology) Condominium apartments are fascinating! At their heart lies a relatively recent legal innovation enabling individual ownership of units in multi-unit developments. Since their arrival, condominium apartments have become places to build homes, sources of rental income, sites of speculative real estate investment, and experiments in private democratic government. They’re also in the middle of many on-going debates about housing and the future of cities in Canada and around the world.

Moving Penalty

What's the penalty to move f you are renting in a purpose-built rental building in Canada.

Jens von Bergmann

3 minute read

Aaron Licker asked a good question about this very interesting dataset. twitter-verse where is the data that forms this amazing table from @CMHC_ca: cc @vb_jens @LausterNa @rwittstock — Aaron Licker (@LGeospatial) November 28, 2018 Unfortunately it is not obvious where to get the raw data, but Keith Stewart at the Vancouver CMHC office was kind enough the share the dataset. So read on to follow my quick look at the data, or just download it if you want to tinker yourself.

Vacancy rate and rent change

The relationship between rent change and vacancy rates in Canada.

Jens von Bergmann

5 minute read

Today the new CMHC Rental Market Survey data came out, which is a good opportunity to refine my musings on the rental vacancy rate and rent increases. I view this as the renter version of the relationship between months of inventory and changes in resale prices in the for sale market. CMHC surveys purpose-built (market) rental apartments every October and reports on a variety of metrics, including statistics about the total stock, median and average rents, vacancy rates, and fixed-sample average rent change among others.

Teardowns and Emissions

Analysing the impact of Vancouver's teardown cycle on carbon emissions.

Jens von Bergmann

15 minute read

Demolitions Middle Finger

Last year we took a detailed look at Single Family teardowns in Vancouver, that is houses in RS or “Single Family” zoning that got torn down. We focused exclusively on those homes in RS zoning because these have to be replaced by another, often bigger, Single Family home. Using historical data we build a probabilistic model to predict future teardowns in Vancouver. If you haven’t taken the time yet to read through the data story, you probably should do that right now.