Forced Out in Canada: New Data from CHS

What industries are dominant in Vancouver? People throw around all kinds of crazy stories, time take a look at the data and put some zombies to rest. At least for a day or two before someone else digs them up again.

Jens von Bergmann Nathan Lauster

14 minute read

(Joint with Nathan Lauster and cross-posted at HomeFreeSociology) TL;DR The new data release from CHS 2018 enables us to return to looking at mobility, with a special focus on forced moves. We estimate and compare the risk of forced moves for renters across Canada. We also provide some evidence for its sharp decline in BC in 2018, following protections put in place by the NDP. Finally, we compare risk of “forced move” to risk of “choice move” for renters.

Vaxx vs VOCs

Vaccines are here to rescue us, but variants of concern threaten to spoil it. What to expect in BC over the next two months as vaccines and variants of concern battle for dominance.

Jens von Bergmann

9 minute read

At this stage in the pandemic there is good news and bad news. The good news is that vaccines are ramping up. And change in dosing schedule means more people are getting some level of protection earlier. The bad news is that variants of concern, or VOCs, are on the rise in BC. We have a decent intuition how each one of these changes our pandemic, but unclear how they interact.

Data variants

We don't have data on variants of concern in BC, so let's take a look at different variants of building proxies.

Jens von Bergmann

10 minute read

Variants of concern are named such because they are concerning. The ones we worry about are B.1.1.7 (the variant first documented in UK), B.1.351 (the variant first documented in South Africa), and P.1 (the variant first documented in Brazil). Currently, B.1.1.7 is probably the most concerning in BC because we know it is significantly more infectious, with a daily growth rate average of around 10%. This means that in our current BC environment, where we have been seeing a decline by about 0.

On COVID and exponential growth

With BC public health officials doubting mathematical modelling it might be time again for an explainer of exponential growth.

Jens von Bergmann

14 minute read

The recent dismissal of PHAC modelling by the head of the BCCDC, coupled with some reactions we have seen on Twitter, have led us realize how hard it is for most people to understand exponential growth. Part of the fault lies with most modellers generally assume too much math literacy in others. In particular, we assume that public health officials or relevant policy makers can understand the models. Even though we have seen time and time again that this assumption is very tenuous.

Industrial Strength Zombies: Vancouver Edition

What industries are dominant in Vancouver? People throw around all kinds of crazy stories, time take a look at the data and put some zombies to rest. At least for a day or two before someone else digs them up again.

Jens von Bergmann Nathan Lauster

12 minute read

(Joint with Nathan Lauster and cross-posted at HomeFreeSociology) The “real estate has swallowed Vancouver’s economy” zombie is back, with wild claims by a City Councillor that “If you look at the long-form census data going back to 1986 every 5 years, […] we went from selling logs to selling real estate […], major shift from resource extraction to real estate property development and construction as the primary driver in the local economy.